ANPG’s Mandate
The Agencia Nacional de Petroleo, Gas e Biocombustiveis (ANPG) assumed the role of upstream regulator in 2019, inheriting concessionaire rights previously held by Sonangol. The agency is responsible for concession block awards, contract management, production data oversight, and regulatory enforcement across Angola’s petroleum sector. Its creation represented a fundamental restructuring of Angola’s oil governance, separating the regulatory function from the commercial interests of the national oil company for the first time since independence.
For the full institutional profile, see ANPG.
The Six-Year Licensing Programme (2019-2025)
ANPG’s flagship initiative is a six-year licensing round designed to auction 50 new exploration and production blocks. The programme targets six sedimentary basins that span Angola’s entire offshore and onshore prospective acreage:
| Basin | Location | Status | Prospectivity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Congo | Northern offshore | Active licensing | Proven — adjacent to producing blocks |
| Kwanza | Central offshore | 2024-2025 tenders | High — pre-salt potential |
| Namibe | Southern offshore | Early licensing | Frontier — limited well data |
| Benguela | Central offshore | 2025 tender | Moderate — geological analogues |
| Etosha | Onshore north | Planned | Frontier — shared with Namibia |
| Okavango/Kassange | Onshore interior | Planned | Frontier — limited seismic data |
The programme was ambitious from inception. Launching 50 blocks across six basins within six years requires sustained international investor interest, adequate geological data packages, and competitive fiscal terms — three conditions that have been unevenly met.
March 2024 Round: 12 Blocks Awarded
In March 2024, ANPG announced winners for a 12-block tender covering the Lower Congo and Kwanza basins. This was the largest single award round since the licensing programme began. The blocks attracted bids from a mix of international oil companies and smaller independents, reflecting both the enduring appeal of Angola’s deepwater geology and the competitive pressure from basins in Namibia, Guyana, and Suriname.
Key features of the March 2024 round:
- Lower Congo blocks: Adjacent to mature producing areas with established infrastructure, reducing development costs and time-to-first-oil
- Kwanza Basin blocks: More exploratory, targeting potential pre-salt plays analogous to those in Brazil’s Santos and Campos basins
- Fiscal terms: Negotiated under Angola’s updated petroleum legislation, with adjustments intended to improve competitiveness
2025 Limited Public Tender
For 2025, ANPG has launched a limited public tender for up to 10 offshore blocks in the Kwanza and Benguela basins. This round focuses on acreage that has been relinquished by previous holders or that sits in underexplored zones between existing concessions. The Benguela Basin, in particular, represents relatively frontier territory for Angola — less well characterised than the Congo or Kwanza basins but with geological features that suggest hydrocarbon potential.
Current Concession Portfolio
As of 2024, ANPG administers over 40 concessions in various stages:
| Status | Number of Concessions | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| In Production | 6 | Mature deepwater and shallow-water blocks |
| Under Exploration | 27 | Mix of committed and optional work programmes |
| Under Development | 4 | Approved development plans, construction underway |
| Under Negotiation | 7 | Terms being finalised with potential operators |
| Total | 40+ |
The six producing concessions account for the vast majority of Angola’s 1.03 million barrels per day output. The 27 blocks under exploration represent the pipeline that must deliver new reserves to offset natural decline from mature fields.
Projected Investment: USD 60 Billion Over Five Years
ANPG projects that new investment in Angola’s upstream sector will exceed USD 60 billion over the next five years. This figure encompasses:
- Exploration drilling commitments from new licence holders
- Development capital for approved projects (including Begonia on Block 17/06 at USD 850 million)
- Infill drilling and enhanced recovery on mature deepwater blocks
- Infrastructure spending on subsea tie-backs and floating production systems
- Contributions to gas monetisation projects
Whether this target is achievable depends on global oil prices, Angola’s fiscal competitiveness, and whether exploration results in the new basins justify continued investment. At a deepwater breakeven of approximately USD 40 per barrel, Angola needs sustained prices above USD 50-60 per barrel to attract frontier exploration capital.
The Incremental Production Decree
In November 2024, the Angolan government introduced an incremental production decree aimed at attracting capital back into mature offshore blocks. The decree provides fiscal incentives for operators who invest in enhanced recovery and infill drilling on blocks where production has declined below historical peaks.
This policy recognises that:
- New exploration takes 7-12 years from licensing to first oil
- Mature blocks can yield incremental production within 2-3 years if fiscal terms are competitive
- Angola’s marginal fields programme requires specific regulatory support
- IOCs are benchmarking Angola against competing opportunities globally
The decree complements the licensing rounds by addressing the existing production base while new acreage moves through the exploration cycle.
Competitive Positioning: Angola vs. Regional Peers
Angola’s licensing rounds compete for the same international capital as programmes in Nigeria, Namibia, Mozambique, Guyana, and Suriname. Each jurisdiction offers different risk-reward profiles:
| Jurisdiction | Government Take | Breakeven (USD/bbl) | Infrastructure | Geological Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angola | High | ~40 | Extensive | Low-Moderate |
| Nigeria | High | ~35 | Extensive | Low |
| Namibia | Moderate | ~35-40 | Limited | Moderate-High |
| Guyana | Low | ~30-35 | Growing | Low |
| Mozambique | Moderate | ~45 | Limited | Low (gas) |
Angola’s advantage is its established infrastructure — existing FPSOs, subsea architecture, pipelines, and the Soyo LNG terminal — which reduces the cost and timeline for developing new discoveries near existing producing blocks. Its disadvantage is a high government take and regulatory complexity that can extend project approval timelines.
ANPG Institutional Capacity
Building ANPG into a credible, independent regulator has been one of the more challenging aspects of the Sonangol restructuring. The agency inherited staff and systems from Sonangol but needed to develop its own institutional culture, technical capabilities, and regulatory philosophy.
Key capacity-building priorities include:
- Data management: Creating a modern geological data repository accessible to prospective bidders
- Regulatory enforcement: Developing inspection and compliance systems for environmental, safety, and local content requirements
- Contract administration: Managing the growing portfolio of production sharing agreements and concession contracts
- International engagement: Participating in EITI and other transparency frameworks
Impact on Revenue Dependency
Successful licensing rounds are central to Angola’s strategy for maintaining oil revenue flows while the broader economy diversifies. The PDN 2023-2027 targets non-oil GDP growth of approximately 5% annually and a non-oil share of GDP reaching 79%. But this transition requires sustained oil revenues to fund public investment in non-oil sectors — making the licensing programme a paradoxical prerequisite for diversification away from oil.
Outlook and Risks
The licensing programme faces several risks:
- Global energy transition: IOCs under shareholder pressure to reduce fossil fuel exposure may limit appetite for new exploration commitments
- Price volatility: Sub-USD 60 oil prices would significantly reduce exploration budgets globally
- Geological disappointment: Frontier basins (Namibe, Etosha, Okavango) have limited well control and may not deliver commercial discoveries
- Institutional capacity: ANPG’s ability to process applications, manage bid rounds, and administer contracts at scale remains untested
- Security of tenure: Investors require confidence that fiscal and contractual terms will be honoured over 25-30 year concession periods
For the latest on licensing activity, see the brief on ANPG 2025 Licensing Round.
Data Sources
Licensing programme details from Angola Oil & Gas portal. Investment projections from US International Trade Administration. Fiscal comparison data from S&P Global Commodity Insights and OilPrice.com.
Six-Year Licensing Program (2019-2025)
ANPG’s flagship initiative is the six-year licensing program targeting the auction of 50 new blocks across six sedimentary basins. The program represents the most ambitious exploration licensing effort in Angola’s history, reflecting the urgency of replacing declining production from mature fields with new discoveries.
| ANPG Licensing Round Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Program duration | 2019-2025 |
| Total blocks to auction | 50 |
| Target basins | Congo, Namibe, Benguela, Etosha, Okavango, Kassange |
| March 2024 round | Winners for 12-block tender (Lower Congo, Kwanza) |
| 2025 limited public tender | Up to 10 offshore blocks (Kwanza, Benguela) |
| Incremental Production Decree | November 2024 (mature block fiscal reform) |
| Projected new investment (5-year) | Over USD 60 billion |
Current Concession Portfolio
ANPG manages a portfolio of over 40 concessions in operation: 6 in active production, 27 under exploration, 4 under development, and 7 under negotiation. The projected new investment of over USD 60 billion over the next five years reflects the scale of IOC commitment to Angola’s upstream sector, despite the competitive pressure from lower-cost provinces where deepwater breakeven costs run USD 30-35/barrel compared to Angola’s approximately USD 40/barrel.
The March 2024 licensing round awarded 12 blocks in the Lower Congo and Kwanza basins to a mix of international and local operators, while the 2025 limited public tender focuses on up to 10 offshore blocks in the Kwanza and Benguela basins, targeting pre-salt and conventional exploration opportunities. The November 2024 Incremental Production Decree complements new licensing by improving fiscal terms for existing mature blocks, creating a dual strategy of new exploration and brownfield optimization.
Production Targets and Economic Impact
The concession rounds support the PDN 2023-2027’s target of maintaining production above 1.1 million b/d through 2027. With production having declined from the 2008 peak of approximately 2 million b/d to current levels of 1.03-1.06 million b/d, the consensus forecast projects crude production rising in 2026 and gradually gaining momentum through 2029. ANPG’s licensing program provides the exploration pipeline needed to identify and develop the new resources that will sustain production beyond the current decade, financing the Estrategia de Longo Prazo Angola 2050’s USD 900 billion implementation program over 27 years.
Broader Economic and Institutional Context
Angola’s petroleum sector operates within the institutional framework established by the PDN 2023-2027, which targets total GDP of 62 trillion kwanzas, annual growth of approximately 3.3%, and non-oil GDP growth of approximately 5% annually. The plan’s three fundamental pillars of human capital development, infrastructure modernization, and economic diversification all depend on sustained petroleum revenue. Public debt reduction from over 100% of GDP in 2020 to just above 60% in 2024 demonstrates fiscal discipline, while agriculture’s share of GDP more than doubled from 6.2% in 2010 to 14.9% in 2023, showing that diversification is progressing alongside oil sector development. The Estrategia de Longo Prazo Angola 2050 envisions growing non-oil GDP from USD 84 billion to USD 275 billion and non-oil exports from USD 5 billion to USD 64 billion by 2050, with the petroleum sector providing the transitional revenue base for this transformation. The Kwenda social program, which distributed USD 420 million to 251,000 families under the previous PDN, illustrates how oil revenue translates into direct social investment that builds the human capital foundation for long-term economic diversification. The current plan’s alignment with the African Union Agenda 2063 and the UN Sustainable Development Goals 2030 further reinforces the connection between petroleum sector performance and broader development outcomes, with 75% of the PDN’s 284 action priorities directly impacting the 17 SDGs.
Downstream Integration and Refinery Development
Angola’s petroleum sector strategy increasingly links upstream production to downstream processing through three major refinery projects. The Cabinda Refinery, inaugurated on 1 September 2025, operates at 30,000 b/d Phase 1 capacity with Phase 2 expansion to 60,000 b/d expected within 18-24 months, representing a USD 550 million investment with Gemcorp holding 90% and Sonangol 10%. The Lobito Refinery, at approximately 12% completion, targets 200,000 b/d capacity with a total investment of USD 6.6 billion and a USD 4.8 billion financing gap being discussed with ICBC, Societe Generale, Standard Chartered, and Afreximbank. The Soyo refinery remains on hold with an earliest expected online date of 2028. Together, these projects address Angola’s approximately 72% import dependency for refined petroleum products, equivalent to roughly 3.3 million metric tons annually.