The Angola Energia 2025 document represents the most comprehensive strategic blueprint ever produced for the country’s power sector. Commissioned by the Ministry of Energy and Water under Minister Joao Baptista Borges, it establishes an integrated long-term vision encompassing generation, transmission, distribution, and rural electrification across the 2018-2025 planning horizon. The plan builds upon the broader national strategy Angola 2025, approved in 2008 with the strategic objective of transforming Angola into a prosperous, modern country with growing insertion into the world and regional economy.
Strategic Context and National Alignment
The Angola Energia 2025 vision sits within a layered policy architecture. At the highest level, the long-term strategy Angola 2025 established five challenges for the power sector: promoting human development and the well-being of Angolans, ensuring a high rate of economic development, developing the national territory harmoniously, promoting equitable and sustainable development, and facilitating Angola’s competitive insertion in the world economy.
These objectives were operationalized through the National Energy Security Policy, approved via Presidential Decree 256/11 in September 2011, which defined six long-term axes for sector transformation. The Electric Sector Transformation Process (PTSE) was subsequently launched to restructure and strengthen operators, including the critical tariff reform needed for economic and financial sustainability.
The Angola Energia 2025 document bridges the gap between these high-level frameworks and concrete investment decisions. It takes the infrastructure expected to be in place by 2017 under the Action Plan 2013-2017 as its starting point and identifies the priority projects, technologies, and institutional arrangements needed for the subsequent eight-year horizon.
Demand Forecast: A Fourfold Increase
The vision’s demand analysis projects peak system load reaching 7.2 GW by the target horizon, more than four times the 1.6 GW baseline. This forecast assumes average annual growth of 15% through 2017 and 12.5% between 2017 and 2025, driven by three structural forces.
The first is electrification itself. The plan targets raising electricity access from approximately 30% to 60% of the population, implying more than 3.7 million household customers by 2025, triple the existing base. More than 18 million Angolans would benefit from grid-connected electricity for the first time.
The second driver is rising residential consumption as living standards improve. Per capita electricity consumption is projected to increase from 375 kWh per inhabitant to 1,230 kWh, a threefold jump that would position Angola at the forefront of Sub-Saharan African nations.
The third is industrialization. The vision anticipates industry rising to 25% of total consumption by 2025, anchored by a set of structuring projects with an estimated load of 1,134 MW. Industrial Development Clusters and mineral resource extraction, particularly iron ore, represent the heaviest future loads.
Additionally, the plan considers the possibility of energy-intensive industries adding up to 800 MW and electricity exports of up to 800 MW to the SADC regional market.
Generation Mix: Balancing Hydro and Gas
The selected generation scenario targets 9.9 GW of total installed capacity, providing a 37.5% reserve margin above the 7.2 GW demand forecast to ensure supply security even in drought years. The mix breaks down as follows:
| Source | Capacity (GW) | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Hydropower | 6.5 | 66% |
| Natural Gas | 1.9 | 19% |
| New Renewables | 0.8 | 8% |
| Other Thermal | 0.7 | 7% |
| Total | 9.9 | 100% |
The vision explicitly opted for a balance between hydropower and natural gas, prioritizing hydroelectric projects that maximize the equilibrium between economic efficiency and regional development. Twenty different generation scenarios were evaluated across four main guidelines, with the three lowest-cost options compared on production cost, investment requirements, transmission infrastructure impact, and environmental footprint.
Hydropower: 159 Sites Assessed
Angola’s hydro resource is described as exceptional, with an estimated total potential of 18.2 GW across all river basins. The Cuanza basin alone holds 8.2 GW, followed by Queve at 4.9 GW, Cunene at 3.0 GW, Catumbela at 2.5 GW, and Cubango at 0.6 GW.
The study team identified 159 previously studied sites through exhaustive research in Angolan and Portuguese archives. After excluding 54 sites that were already built, under construction, on international rivers, primarily for irrigation, lacking precise location data, or having insufficient technical information, the remaining 105 were evaluated through a strategic environmental assessment.
Approximately 50 sites advanced to detailed analysis, and roughly 20 were identified as priority candidates. The final selection yielded schemes totaling 4 GW of additional capacity. Among the most competitive were Tumulo do Cacador on the Cuanza River (453 MW, LCOE $35.9/MWh), Calengue on the Catumbela (190 MW, LCOE $38.9/MWh), Zenzo I on the Cuanza (460 MW, LCOE $42.2/MWh), and Balalunga on the Queve (217 MW, LCOE $45.5/MWh).
The strategic environmental assessment weighted three dimensions: hydroelectric potential (including installed and firm capacity, LCOE, and internal rate of return), watershed potential and regional development (regulation capacity, agricultural potential, new consumption centers), and environmental impact (biodiversity, protected areas, flooded area, demographic constraints).
Gas-to-Power Strategy
The Soyo LNG terminal fundamentally transforms the power sector’s fuel economics. Natural gas capacity is planned to reach 1,440 MW at Soyo alone, with the installation of two additional 360 MW units beyond the 720 MW already under construction. Gas units in Cabinda, Luanda, Benguela, and Namibe would bring the total to 1.9 GW.
Gas integration serves multiple strategic purposes. It provides firm backup during dry years when hydropower output drops from over 70% to 48% of internal consumption. It enables the replacement of expensive diesel generation with lower-cost, lower-emission gas-fired power. And it catalyzes the gasification of Angola’s industrial corridors, supporting the broader economic diversification agenda.
The Futila power plant in Cabinda is planned to grow to 235 MW based on two medium-sized combined cycles of 100 MW each, converted to operate on natural gas produced onshore in the province and connected to the DRC at 220 kV.
The 800 MW Renewables Target
The National Strategy for New Renewable Energies established specific targets by technology:
| Technology | Target (MW) | Key Projects |
|---|---|---|
| Biomass | 500 | Hydrothermal project (300 MW), Biocom sugar (100 MW), MSW (50 MW) |
| Solar | 100 | 78 MW grid-connected, 22 MW rural electrification |
| Wind | 100 | Tombwa, Cuanza Norte, Lubango projects |
| Mini-Hydro | 100 | 30 MW isolated systems, 70 MW grid-connected |
Angola’s solar resource ranges from 1,350 to 2,070 kWh/m2/year in global horizontal irradiation, with medium and large-scale solar projects already achieving levelized costs below $0.20/kWh in the Eastern System and below $0.15/kWh in the Central and Southern Systems. The wind atlas identified 12 sites with favorable conditions for up to 3.9 GW of capacity, with wind speeds exceeding 6 meters per second at 80 meters altitude.
Combined with large hydropower, Angola would achieve 74% renewable installed capacity, placing it among the top 10 countries worldwide among SADC, OPEC, and OECD members. The power sector CO2 emission factor would reach just 98 g CO2/kWh, comparable to Switzerland and New Zealand.
Grid Architecture: The North-Central-South Corridor
The National Transport Network planned for 2025 features a 400 kV backbone connecting the Northern, Central, and Southern systems, enabling efficient power flows between hydro-rich and demand-heavy regions. The corridor serves four functions: delivering competitive energy to provinces, connecting Angola to the DR Congo (north) and Namibia (south) for regional trade, maximizing generation efficiency through system optimization, and post-2025, transporting gas-based generation from new discoveries.
The distribution of load shifts meaningfully by 2025. The Northern System grows from 1 GW to 4.3 GW but its national share drops from 80% to 60%. The Central System reaches 1.3 GW (19%), the South 0.8 GW (11%), the East 0.5 GW (7%), and Cabinda 0.2 GW (3%).
Rural Electrification: Three Models
The rural electrification program operates through three parallel channels:
Grid extension reaches 174 locations representing approximately 5% of the population, or 1.7 million people. This model builds 60 kV substations branching from existing or planned 220 kV substations, with municipal townships serving as hubs for further rural network extension.
Isolated systems serve 31 locations, representing 1% of the population. These are preferentially supplied by competitive mini-hydro, with diesel-solar hybrids or fully solar systems where hydro is unavailable. The Municipality of Rivungo in Cuando Cubango was selected to test the concept of a 100% solar municipal township.
Individual systems comprise 500 solar villages providing modern energy services to commune centers with populations above 3,000 inhabitants, plus solar lanterns and improved cookstoves for remote settlements.
Investment Requirements
The total investment required across the 2018-2025 horizon is estimated at USD 23 billion. The investment framework envisions a progressive shift from public to private financing. Public investment concentrates on large dams, the national transport network, public utility distribution areas managed by ENDE, and rural electrification. All other generation investments, including gas-fired and renewable projects, should progressively shift to private sector financing.
The study demonstrates that the lower production costs of hydro and gas, combined with tariffs aligned with regional benchmarks, allow the sector to achieve financial self-sustainability. However, this requires aggressive loss reduction from the current 14% technical losses and progressive tariff reform.
Operational Reality: Hydrology Drives Everything
In average hydrological years, hydropower provides 72.7% of generation, gas 18.2%, new renewables 8.7%, and other thermal just 0.4%. The Angolan system benefits from natural alignment between peak demand and peak hydro production during the wet season (January to June).
However, in dry years the picture shifts dramatically. Hydro drops to 48% of production, gas plants operate at full capacity, backup thermal units see heavy utilization, and it may be necessary to import energy during off-peak hours. Conversely, in wet years, excess hydro and contractually obligated gas production create surplus energy that strengthens the case for regional export through the SADC interconnection.
Legacy and Forward Trajectory
The Angola Energia 2025 vision established the strategic direction that continues to shape power sector decisions today. While implementation timelines have shifted due to the oil price downturn, the COVID-19 pandemic, and fiscal constraints, the fundamental architecture remains intact. The Plano de Desenvolvimento Nacional 2023-2027 reaffirmed infrastructure modernization and expansion as one of three fundamental pillars, with the energy sector positioned as a critical enabler of economic diversification away from oil dependence.
External sources confirm the ongoing relevance of this framework. The African Development Bank notes that Angola achieved 4.4% GDP growth in 2024, its strongest performance in five years, with both oil and non-oil sectors contributing. The long-term strategy Angola 2050, approved in September 2023, projects non-oil GDP growing from $84 billion to $275 billion by 2050, an expansion that depends fundamentally on reliable and affordable electricity supply.
Vision Targets and Outcomes Framework
The Angola Energia 2025 vision established that by the target date, the country should have 9.9 GW of installed capacity with hydropower at 66% and gas at 19%, serving a projected peak demand of 7.2 GW that represents more than a fourfold increase from the base period. The vision targets electricity access for 60% of the population through 3.7 million household connections, with annual per capita consumption rising from 375 kWh to 1,230 kWh. Industrial electricity consumption was targeted to grow from 8% to 25% of total consumption, supported by over 160 structural projects across mineral resources, agro-industry, and manufacturing clusters.
The investment mobilization requirement of USD 23 billion for the 2018-2025 period was designed to be progressively supported by private sector financing as tariff reform and sector restructuring through PRODEL, ENDE, and GAMEK enable commercial viability. The vision remains the foundational planning document informing the current PDN 2023-2027’s energy sector priorities and the broader Estrategia de Longo Prazo Angola 2050’s USD 900 billion implementation framework.
Related Policy and Institutional Context
The Plano de Desenvolvimento Nacional 2023-2027, approved by Presidential Decree No. 225/23, organizes national development around 16 policies, 50 programs, and 284 action priorities. The energy sector falls primarily under the second strategic axis of promoting balanced and harmonious territorial development and the sixth axis of ensuring sustainable, inclusive economic diversification. These axes directly inform the prioritization of power sector investments, with 75% of the PDN’s action priorities impacting the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals. Angola’s recent economic performance, with 4.4% GDP growth in 2024 driven by both oil and non-oil sectors and agriculture outpacing GDP growth for four consecutive years, validates the integrated approach to energy and economic planning established under the Angola Energia 2025 framework and continued through the current national development planning cycle.