Brief: UAE-Angola CEPA Drives 29.7% Trade Growth in H1 2025

Key Data Points

What Happened

The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between the UAE and Angola, signed during President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed’s 2025 state visit, is already generating measurable trade acceleration. Non-oil bilateral trade reached approximately USD 1.4 billion in H1 2025, representing a 29.7 percent increase over the same period in 2024. Full-year 2024 non-oil trade was USD 2.17 billion, itself a 2.6 percent increase over 2023.

The CEPA establishes the most ambitious bilateral trade target in Angola’s current partnership portfolio: USD 10 billion in annual trade by 2033. Achieving this requires compound annual growth of approximately 20 percent from current levels — ambitious but consistent with the H1 2025 momentum.

Why It Matters

The CEPA is strategically significant for several reasons:

Diversification Vector: The UAE brings capabilities — logistics expertise, sovereign wealth capital, renewable energy technology, AI leadership — that Angola’s other partners provide less comprehensively. The partnership diversifies Angola beyond its traditional Chinese, Portuguese, and American partnerships.

Port and Logistics: UAE logistics operators, particularly DP World, have extensive experience managing ports and free trade zones across Africa. Their potential participation in PROPRIV port privatizations could transform Angola’s logistics infrastructure.

Sovereign Wealth Cooperation: UAE sovereign wealth funds (ADIA, Mubadala) and the FSDEA could establish co-investment vehicles channeling capital into Angola’s infrastructure and critical minerals sectors.

Renewable Energy: Masdar, Abu Dhabi’s clean energy company, could bring solar and wind expertise to Angola, addressing power supply constraints that limit industrial development in free trade zones.

Trade Composition

Cumulative UAE imports to Angola from 2015 to 2025 totaled USD 5.2 billion across 376,897 transactions. The trade relationship is currently weighted toward UAE exports of consumer goods, electronics, and re-exports. The CEPA aims to deepen this beyond commodity trade into structured cooperation across ten sectors: AI, banking, agriculture, tourism, investment, renewable energy, culture, education, climate action, and technology.

UAE non-oil exports to Angola of USD 135.6 million indicate significant room for growth. The asymmetry — with Angola’s imports from the UAE far exceeding UAE imports from Angola in non-oil categories — suggests that the CEPA’s impact will initially manifest in UAE investment flows and service exports rather than balanced merchandise trade.

Comparison with Other Bilateral Frameworks

Challenges

Reaching the USD 10 billion target requires overcoming FATF grey list compliance costs, Angola’s 27 percent inflation rate, kwanza volatility, and the current narrow base of non-oil bilateral trade. The UAE’s own recent exit from the FATF grey list (February 2024) gives both countries experience with remediation processes.

Outlook

The H1 2025 growth rate of 29.7 percent is encouraging but must be sustained over eight years to approach the USD 10 billion target. The most transformative elements of the partnership — sovereign wealth cooperation, logistics infrastructure, and renewable energy investment — will unfold over a longer horizon than merchandise trade. Full analysis in the UAE CEPA deep dive.

Sources

• The National News — UAE and Angola CEPA

Trade Growth Acceleration

The UAE-Angola CEPA, signed during President Sheikh Mohamed’s 2025 state visit, targets USD 10 billion in annual bilateral trade by 2033. Current momentum supports this ambition: non-oil bilateral trade reached USD 2.17 billion in 2024 (2.6% growth), with H1 2025 non-oil trade surging to approximately USD 1.4 billion — a 29.7% increase over H1 2024. UAE non-oil exports to Angola stand at USD 135.6 million.

Cumulative UAE imports to Angola total USD 5.2 billion (2015–2025) across 376,897 transactions, making the Emirates Angola’s 13th-largest import source. The CEPA framework aims to dramatically accelerate this baseline.

Ten-Sector Cooperation Framework

The CEPA encompasses AI, banking, agriculture, tourism, investment, renewable energy, culture, education, climate action, and technology. This breadth directly aligns with Angola’s economic diversification priorities and creates multiple channels for UAE capital and expertise to enter the Angolan economy.

Key sector alignments include:

• Banking: UAE financial institutions partnering with Angola’s banking sector (17.2 million accounts, ROE 24.8%)
• Agriculture: UAE food security technology for Angola’s USD 3 billion import substitution opportunity
• Tourism: UAE hospitality expertise for PLANATUR (EUR 8.23 billion development budget)
• Investment: Sovereign wealth fund cooperation between UAE entities and FSDEA (USD 3.9 billion AUM)

Financial Sector Implications

The banking cooperation dimension is particularly relevant given Angola’s FATF grey list placement (October 2024). UAE financial institutions — operating across diverse regulatory environments — could provide Angola’s banking sector with partnership models that maintain international connectivity. The BNA regulatory framework and the fintech ecosystem (9.5 million Multicaixa Express users) create platforms for cooperation in digital payments and financial inclusion.

Investment Channel Development

The CEPA creates an institutional framework for UAE sovereign wealth funds and private capital to invest in Angola through AIPEX registration. The Private Investment Law of 2018 applies to UAE investments, with FSDEA (USD 3.9 billion AUM) available as a co-investment partner. The ZEE, PROPRIV assets, critical minerals, and the Lobito Corridor all represent specific investment targets within the CEPA framework.

Critical Minerals and Energy Transition Cooperation

The CEPA’s renewable energy and technology cooperation areas align with Angola’s critical minerals potential. Angola’s 36 identified minerals — including lithium, cobalt, copper, and rare earth elements — are essential inputs for the clean energy technologies that the UAE is investing in domestically. The Lobito Corridor provides the logistics infrastructure for mineral export, while UAE investment in mining and processing within Angola could create integrated supply chains serving both Gulf and global markets.

Diaspora and Cultural Linkages

The CEPA’s culture and education cooperation components address the human dimension of bilateral relations. Angola’s diaspora investment channels may benefit from improved UAE-Angola connectivity as diaspora communities in the Gulf access enhanced financial transfer mechanisms. The BNA sandbox project AfriPay Angola (cross-border payments) could eventually serve UAE-Angola remittance corridors, reducing costs for workers and businesses operating across both markets.

Implementation Milestones

The CEPA’s success will be measured by progress toward the USD 10 billion annual trade target. Key milestones include: achieving USD 5 billion by 2028 (the halfway point), launching specific cooperation projects in the ten priority sectors, establishing UAE financial institution presence in Angola’s banking sector, and initiating joint investments through the FSDEA (USD 3.9 billion AUM) and UAE sovereign wealth funds. The Ministry of Finance’s fiscal framework and the Private Investment Law of 2018 govern the regulatory environment for CEPA-facilitated investments.

Trade Performance and Acceleration

Non-oil bilateral trade between the UAE and Angola reached USD 2.17 billion in 2024, reflecting 2.6% growth over 2023. UAE non-oil exports to Angola totaled USD 135.6 million. In the first half of 2025, non-oil trade reached approximately USD 1.4 billion — a 29.7% increase over H1 2024 — demonstrating accelerating momentum ahead of the USD 10 billion annual target by 2033.

The CEPA was signed during President Sheikh Mohamed’s state visit to Angola in 2025, covering 10 cooperation areas: artificial intelligence, banking, agriculture, tourism, investment, renewable energy, culture, education, climate action, and technology. The breadth of these areas reflects the comprehensive economic complementarities between the two economies.

Integration with Angola’s Investment Architecture

The CEPA complements Angola’s existing investment facilitation frameworks. AIPEX processes UAE project registrations through the Single Investment Window, while the ZEE Luanda-Bengo free trade zones actively target UAE investors as one of 13 priority expansion countries. The FSDEA sovereign wealth fund provides co-investment opportunities with UAE sovereign and private capital, particularly in infrastructure and renewable energy aligned with the PDN 2023-2027.

The UAE partnership adds to Angola’s diversifying bilateral portfolio alongside the US strategic partnership (over USD 560 million in Lobito Corridor funding), the EU-Angola SIFA (first EU investment facilitation agreement), and Brazil’s seven MOUs signed in 2023.

Sector-Specific Opportunities

The CEPA’s renewable energy cooperation area aligns with Angola’s renewable energy strategy and the power sector’s need for diversified generation sources. UAE expertise in solar and wind complements Angola’s existing hydroelectric assets. Banking cooperation targets the fintech sector, where UAE digital payment platforms could partner with Angolan institutions. Agricultural cooperation leverages Angola’s vast arable land — the basis for the sector’s growth from 6.2% to 14.9% of GDP between 2010 and 2023.

USD 10 Billion Trade Target Assessment

The CEPA’s target of USD 10 billion in annual bilateral trade by 2033 represents a nearly sevenfold increase from the current base of approximately USD 1.4 billion in non-oil trade recorded in H1 2025. Achieving this target requires sustained annual growth of approximately 25-30% in bilateral trade volumes, a rate that presupposes both significant expansion of existing trade flows and the creation of entirely new trade categories.

The target’s feasibility depends on the composition of trade growth. Oil trade, which could be scaled relatively quickly if UAE refineries increase purchases of Angolan crude, represents the easiest pathway to headline volume growth but does not advance the diversification objectives that give the CEPA its strategic significance. Non-oil trade growth, in manufactured goods, agricultural products, financial services, and technology, is more difficult to achieve but more valuable for Angola’s economic transformation.

The 29.7% growth rate recorded in H1 2025 non-oil trade is encouraging and, if sustained, would approach the trajectory needed for the 2033 target. However, first-year growth rates from a low base often reflect pent-up demand and initial trade facilitation effects that moderate in subsequent years as the easy gains are captured.

Logistics and Trade Facilitation Infrastructure

Bilateral trade between Angola and the UAE depends on logistics infrastructure that connects the two economies. Air freight through AIAAN with its 130,000 metric ton annual cargo capacity provides the fastest connection for high-value goods and perishable agricultural products. Maritime shipping through the Port of Lobito and Luanda port handles bulk cargo. The SACS submarine cable operated by Angola Cables provides the digital connectivity for trade documentation, electronic payments, and business communications.

UAE logistics operators, including DP World and Abu Dhabi Ports, possess port management expertise that could be applied to Angola’s port modernization under the PROPRIV privatization program. A UAE operator managing one of Angola’s ports would simultaneously advance the CEPA’s trade facilitation objectives and the PROPRIV program’s efficiency improvement goals, creating institutional synergies that benefit both bilateral trade and Angola’s domestic logistics infrastructure.

Technology Transfer and AI Cooperation

The CEPA’s inclusion of AI and technology cooperation reflects the UAE’s positioning as a technology hub and Angola’s need for digital transformation capacity. UAE technology companies have developed expertise in smart city applications, financial technology, renewable energy management systems, and e-governance platforms that are directly relevant to Angola’s development priorities.

Technology transfer through the CEPA could accelerate Angola’s digital transformation in several dimensions: smart metering for the PROAGUA water program and electricity distribution, AI-powered credit scoring for the fintech sector serving previously unbanked populations, precision agriculture applications that optimize the 105 billion kwanza agricultural campaign’s impact, and cybersecurity systems that protect the expanding digital infrastructure.

The UAE’s Masdar company has established significant renewable energy operations across the developing world, including solar and wind projects in Sub-Saharan Africa. Masdar’s involvement in Angola’s renewable energy targets could bring project development expertise, financing capacity, and operational experience that accelerates achievement of the 800 MW new renewables goal.

Financial Services Cooperation and Banking Integration

The CEPA’s banking cooperation dimension creates opportunities for UAE financial institutions to enter Angola’s market and for Angolan banks to access Gulf capital markets. UAE banks, particularly those with Islamic banking divisions, offer financial products and services not currently available in Angola’s conventional banking market. The introduction of Sharia-compliant financing instruments could attract investment from the broader Islamic finance market, estimated at USD 3-4 trillion globally.

For Angola’s banking sector, with its 24 licensed commercial banks and system-wide ROE of 24.8%, the UAE partnership could facilitate correspondent banking relationships that strengthen international financial connectivity, particularly important given the FATF grey list pressures on existing correspondent relationships. UAE financial institutions, with their experience navigating compliance requirements across multiple jurisdictions, can provide both capital and compliance expertise that helps Angolan banks maintain their connection to the global financial system.

Tourism and Hospitality Cooperation

The UAE’s expertise in tourism development, demonstrated by Dubai’s transformation from a small trading port to a global tourism destination attracting over 16 million visitors annually, is directly relevant to Angola’s tourism ambitions under the PLANATUR 2024-2027 strategy. UAE hospitality companies, hotel management groups, and tourism infrastructure developers bring operational expertise and brand recognition that could accelerate Angola’s tourism sector development.

Angola’s tourism assets, including the 1,600-kilometer Atlantic coastline, diverse national parks, the Kalandula Falls, and the cultural heritage of Luanda, remain largely undeveloped for international tourism. UAE hospitality operators could bring the management expertise, service standards, and marketing reach needed to develop these assets into competitive tourism products. The CEPA provides the bilateral framework for facilitating UAE tourism investment, while the new AIAAN airport with its 15 million passenger capacity and visa-free entry for 97 countries provides the aviation infrastructure that tourism development requires.

Implementation Timeline and Milestone Tracking

The CEPA’s ambitious trade target of USD 10 billion by 2033 requires structured implementation with clear milestones at annual and semi-annual intervals. Joint implementation committees, staffed by officials from both governments and supported by private sector advisory councils, should meet regularly to review progress, identify barriers, and adjust strategies. Key milestones include the establishment of direct air routes between Abu Dhabi or Dubai and Luanda, the completion of the first UAE-invested renewable energy project in Angola, the first BODIVA-listed investment vehicle with UAE participation, and the achievement of interim trade volume targets at USD 3 billion by 2027 and USD 6 billion by 2030. Without structured implementation monitoring, the CEPA risks remaining a diplomatic achievement without commercial substance, a pattern observed in many bilateral trade agreements across the developing world that generate headlines at signing but fail to deliver the trade and investment flows they promise.